I don’t want to participate in the general debate on COVID19 as there are enough, much more knowledgeable experts doing so already.
However, I did want to share something that sparked my interest: this great article by the Washington Post where they show the importance of social distancing in case of viral outbreaks with four simple simulations:
- Regular viral outbreak
- Viral outbreak with forced (temporary) quarantaine
- Viral outbreak with moderate social distancing
- Viral outbreak with extensive social distancing
While these are obviously much oversimplified models of reality, the results convey a powerful and very visual message showing the importance of our social behavior in such a crisis.
As these simulations are randomized, you will get your own personalized results when you read the article! Try it out yourself: washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?tid=
A comparison of my results: