Cohen’s d (wiki) is a statistic used to indicate the standardised difference between two means. Resarchers often use it to compare the averages between groups, for instance to determine that there are higher outcomes values in a experimental group than in a control group.
Researchers often use general guidelines to determine the size of an effect. Looking at Cohen’s d, psychologists often consider effects to be small when Cohen’s d is between 0.2 or 0.3, medium effects (whatever that may mean) are assumed for values around 0.5, and values of Cohen’s d larger than 0.8 would depict large effects (e.g., University of Bath).
A/B testing is a method of comparing two versions of some thing against each other to determine which is better. A/B tests are often mentioned in e-commerce contexts, where the things we are comparing are web pages.
Business leaders and data scientists alike face a difficult trade-off when running A/B tests: How big should the A/B test be? Or in other words, After collecting how many data points, or running for how many days, should we make a decision whether A or B is the best way to go?
This is a tradeoff because the sample size of an A/B test determines its statistical power. This statistical power, in simple terms, determines the probability of a A/B test showing an effect if there is actually really an effect. In general, the more data you collect, the higher the odds of you finding the real effect and making the right decision.
By default, researchers often aim for 80% power, with a 5% significance cutoff. But is this general guideline really optimal for the tradeoff between costs and benefits in your specific business context? Chris thinks not.
Chris said wrote a great three-piece blog in which he explains how you can mathematically determine the optimal duration of A/B-testing in your own company setting:
Part I: General Overview. Starts with a mostly non-technical overview and ends with a section called “Three lessons for practitioners”.
Part II: Expected lift. A more technical section that quantifies the benefits of experimentation as a function of sample size.
Part III: Aggregate time-discounted lift. A more technical section that quantifies the costs of experimentation as a function of sample size. It then combines costs and benefits into a closed-form expression that can be optimized. Ends with an FAQ.
Basically, the predictive power score is a normalized metric (values range from 0 to 1) that shows you to what extent you can use a variable X (say age) to predict a variable Y (say weight in kgs).
A PPS high score of, for instance, 0.85, would show that weight can be predicted pretty good using age.
A low PPS score, of say 0.10, would imply that weight is hard to predict using age.
The PPS acts a bit like a correlation coefficient we’re used too, but it is also different in many ways that are useful to data scientists:
PPS also detects and summarizes non-linear relationships
PPS is assymetric, so that it models Y ~ X, but not necessarily X ~ Y
PPS can summarize predictive value of / among categorical variables and nominal data
However, you may argue that the PPS is harder to interpret than the common correlation coefficent:
PPS can reflect quite complex and very different patterns
Therefore, PPS are hard to compare: a 0.5 may reflect a linear relationship but also many other relationships
PPS are highly dependent on the used algorithm: you can use any algorithm from OLS to CART to full-blown NN or XGBoost. Your algorithm hihgly depends the patterns you’ll detect and thus your scores
PPS are highly dependent on the the evaluation metric (RMSE, MAE, etc).
Here’s an example picture from the original blog, showing a case in which PSS shows the relevant predictive value of Y ~ X, whereas a correlation coefficient would show no relationship whatsoever:
Here’s two more pictures from the original blog showing the differences with a standard correlation matrix on the Titanic data:
I highly suggest you readthe original blog for more details and information, and that you check out the associated Python packageppscore:
Installing the package:
pip install ppscore
Calculating the PPS for a given pandas dataframe:
import ppscore as pps pps.score(df, "feature_column", "target_column")
You can also calculate the whole PPS matrix:
There’s no R package yet, but it should not be hard to implement this general logic.
Florian Wetschoreck — the author — already noted that there may be several use cases where he’d think PPS may add value:
Find patterns in the data [red: data exploration]: The PPS finds every relationship that the correlation finds — and more. Thus, you can use the PPS matrix as an alternative to the correlation matrix to detect and understand linear or nonlinear patterns in your data. This is possible across data types using a single score that always ranges from 0 to 1.
Feature selection: In addition to your usual feature selection mechanism, you can use the predictive power score to find good predictors for your target column. Also, you can eliminate features that just add random noise. Those features sometimes still score high in feature importance metrics. In addition, you can eliminate features that can be predicted by other features because they don’t add new information. Besides, you can identify pairs of mutually predictive features in the PPS matrix — this includes strongly correlated features but will also detect non-linear relationships.
Detect information leakage: Use the PPS matrix to detect information leakage between variables — even if the information leakage is mediated via other variables.
Data Normalization: Find entity structures in the data via interpreting the PPS matrix as a directed graph. This might be surprising when the data contains latent structures that were previously unknown. For example: the TicketID in the Titanic dataset is often an indicator for a family.
Both in science and business, we often experience difficulties collecting enough data to test our hypotheses, either because target groups are small or hard to access, or because data collection entails prohibitive costs.
Such obstacles may result in data sets that are too small for the complexity of the statistical model needed to answer the questions we’re really interested in.
This unique book provides guidelines and tools for implementing solutions to issues that arise in small sample studies. Each chapter illustrates statistical methods that allow researchers and analysts to apply the optimal statistical model for their research question when the sample is too small.
This book will enable anyone working with data to test their hypotheses even when the statistical model required for answering their questions are too complex for the sample sizes they can collect. The covered statistical models range from the estimation of a population mean to models with latent variables and nested observations, and solutions include both classical and Bayesian methods. All proposed solutions are described in steps researchers can implement with their own data and are accompanied with annotated syntax in R.
Owen argues that the probability distributions relate to each other in intuitive and interesting ways that makes it easier for you to recall them. For instance, several follow naturally from the Bernoulli distribution. Having this map by hand should thus help you really understand what these distributions imply.
On top of that, it’s just a nice geeky network poster!
Now, Sean didn’t just make a fancy map. In the original blog he also explains each of the distributions and how it relates to the others. Having this knowledge is vital to being a good data scientist / analyst.
You can sometimes get away with simple analysis using R or scikit-learn without quite understanding distributions, just like you can manage a Java program without understanding hash functions. But it would soon end in tears, bugs, bogus results, or worse: sighs and eye-rolling from stats majors.
For instance, here’s Sean explaining the Binomial distribution:
The binomial distribution may be thought of as the sum of outcomes of things that follow a Bernoulli distribution. Toss a fair coin 20 times; how many times does it come up heads? This count is an outcome that follows the binomial distribution. Its parameters are n, the number of trials, and p, the probability of a “success” (here: heads, or 1). Each flip is a Bernoulli-distributed outcome, or trial. Reach for the binomial distribution when counting the number of successes in things that act like a coin flip, where each flip is independent and has the same probability of success.
Bayesian networks are a type of probabilistic graphical model that uses Bayesian inference for probability computations. Bayesian networks aim to model conditional dependence, and therefore causation, by representing conditional dependence by edges in a directed graph. Through these relationships, one can efficiently conduct inference on the random variables in the graph through the use of factors.
As Bayes nets represent data as a probabilistic graph, it is very easy to use that structure to simulate new data that demonstrate the realistic patterns of the underlying causal system. Daniel’s post shows how to do this with bnlearn.
New data is simulated from a Bayes net (see above) by first sampling from each of the root nodes, in this case sex. Then followed by the children conditional on their parent(s) (e.g. sport | sex and hg | sex) until data for all nodes has been drawn. The numbers on the nodes below indicate the sequence in which the data is simulated, noting that rcc is the terminal node.
The original and simulated datasets are compared in a couple of ways 1) observing the distributions of the variables 2) comparing the output from various models and 3) comparing conditional probability queries. The third test is more of a sanity check. If the data is generated from the original Bayes net then a new one fit on the simulated data should be approximately the same. The more rows we generate the closer the parameters will be to the original values.
As you can see, a Bayesian network allows you to generate data that looks, feels, and behaves a lot like the data on which you based your network on in the first place.
This can be super useful if you want to generate a synthetic / fake / artificial dataset without sharing personal or sensitive data.
Moreover, the underlying Bayesian net can be very useful to compute missing values. In Daniel’s example, he left out some values on purpose (pretending they were missing) and imputed them with the Bayes net. He found that the imputed values for the missing data points were quite close to the original ones:
In the original blog, Daniel goes on to show how to further check the integrity of the simulated data using statistical models and shares all his code so you can try this out yourself. Please do give his website a visit as Daniel has many more interesting statistics blogs!